Assessing the predictability of seasonal forecast

Seasonal forecast is essential for marine management yet potentially complicated. It is limited in part by the quality of current meteorological seasonal forecasts, which limits our ability to reach a good seasonal forecast during the project period. For this reason in OPEC we choose to explore the potential predictability of the seasonal forecast, with a view to defining operational services in the future. The impacts of changes in external drivers such as land derived nutrients and fishing mortality on predictability will be assessed.

The overall objective here is to assess the predictability of target variables at seasonal timescales.

The sub objectives are:
  • To devise a strategy for assessing the predictability of key indicators at seasonal time scales.
  • To assess the predictability of ECVs and key indicators for GES descriptors biodiversity (in terms of habitat)
    and eutrophication at seasonal timescales.
  • To assess the predictability of key indicators for GES descriptors foodwebs and commercial fish at seasonal
    timescales.
  • To make recommendations for the implementation of seasonal forecasting in operational ecology.

Project deliverables

D4.1) Experimental Strategy for assessing seasonal forecast predictability [month 21]
D4.2) Assessment of seasonal predictability for indicators of lower trophic levels in all 4 regions [month 30] template
D4.3) Assessment of seasonal predictability for indicators of high trophic levels in all 4 regions [month 33] template
D4.4) Recommendations for the implementation of a operational ecological seasonal forecast [month 36]



Contact Information

 

OPEC Wikis

 

Project Funding

This collaborative project is funded under the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union