Developing an approach for seasonal forecasting

During the OPEC project the modellers across Europe carried out model based experiments to explore the feasibility of making seasonal forecasts using an ensemble of models. The experiments looked at the different model systems in each regional sea to explore their skill at making predictions over a seasonal time scale. Looking at the sensitivity and skill of the system.

This work was the first step in developing a protocol for seasonal forecasting which has not been done before. The ability to predict changes and understand variability within marine ecosystems at a seasonal scale will be highly useful in support monitoring and management at a regional level.

Further developments in data assimilation and improved meteorological data is required before operational seasonal forecasts can be made. A multi-model ensemble approach is foreseen as final solution for forecasting pan-European regional sea ecosystems in seasonal or longer time scales.

Full details of the recommendations made are available here